The private aviation world talks about reliability constantly, but the details are often vague.

In this interview, Josh Allen and Aaron Donnelly share something more useful: what their disruption data looked like, what patterns stood out in 2025, and why “aircraft type” alone is not a reliable shortcut.

The baseline: disruption is single digits to around 10 percent

One of the most common questions they get is: “What’s the percentage of a mechanical?”

They describe it as roughly one out of ten flights, with their overall average landing in the high single digits to low nines for 2025, and the shorthand they use being about 10%.

They also note the difference between fleet models:

• Managed fleets tend to be a couple points below average.

• Floating fleets tend to be a couple points above.

The 2025 higher-than-average aircraft types they saw

From the transcript, the types they call out as higher-than-average in 2025 include:

• Citation X (Citation 10) at roughly five points higher than average

• Gulfstream IV-SP (G4 SP)

• Cessna Citation Excel

They also mention what clients most commonly place support on, with Citation 10, Challenger 300, and Excel showing up as top types in that “support applied” bucket.

The important nuance is that popularity and disruption rate can overlap, but they are not the same thing.

The real story: operator performance can flip the narrative

The most revealing part of the discussion is what they say about Citation 10 performance.

They describe one Citation 10 operator that stands out dramatically: Baker. They say Baker operates Citation 10s significantly better than the broader Citation 10 pool, and that if you remove Baker from the Citation 10 disruption bucket, the remaining disruption rate jumps into the 20% range.

That is the point: the “type” does not tell the whole story. Who operates and maintains the aircraft can change everything.

They also talk about recognizing “peaks and valleys” in operator performance. Operators rarely stay terrible forever. They either improve or exit the market. Even a 3% swing in a short period can be meaningful.

Why MEL and maintenance realities matter in disruption conversations

In the interview, Aaron references that some issues can be MEL’d, and that early communication can prevent chaos, but also creates fear for operators who worry the trip will be pulled.

MEL is a structured framework that defines what equipment can be inoperative under specific conditions while the aircraft remains operational under approved procedures.

This matters because it changes the “is the trip dead” conversation. Some issues are recoverable without a full rip-and-replace, but only if communication is clear and the parties trust each other.

Lead time: most disruptions are not day-of surprises

Aaron shares that roughly half of disruptions show up the day prior, with the remaining half split between multiple days ahead and day-of.

That changes how you plan recovery. A day-prior disruption is still hard, but it is a very different problem than a same-day AOG with passengers at the airport.

They also mention that when disruptions come in during the morning for same-day travel, a five to six hour window often gives them a strong chance at finding on-time options, unless the departure point is extremely remote or the market is constrained.

The takeaway

“Reliability” is not a vibe. It is measurable, and it is uneven.

The interview makes a strong case that the future of charter reliability will be shaped by:

• performance transparency,

• better disruption communication norms,

• and tools that help brokers and operators make decisions based on real patterns, not assumptions.

And if you want to improve outcomes, the most practical shift is this: stop judging reliability by aircraft type alone. Start paying attention to operator performance, lead time realities, and the decision model you use when things break.

Watch the full episode to see what the 2025 disruption data actually shows, how aircraft type can mislead, and why operator performance changes the entire reliability conversation:

https://flyironbird.com/private_jet_podcast/turning-aviation-chaos-into-calm

If you’re making charter decisions based on “type reputation” alone, this is a discussion worth hearing in full.

Learn more about Charter Flight Support and how their data and recovery model can support your operation by completing this form:

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